Independents sold 5.6% fewer units in 2025 and still grew sales 4.7%. What gold, confidence and redesign mean for the 2026 holiday.

Insights · Jewelry Intelligence

Holiday 2026 for Independent Jewelers: Price Up, Units Down, and the Redesign Opening

By Nick Constantino · October 16, 2026 · 4 min read

Units down 5.6%. Sales up 4.7%. That was 2025 for the independent jewelers in Edge Retail Academy’s data, and it is the single most important pair of numbers to understand before this holiday.

Key takeaways

2025 was a price-up, units-down year: sales +4.7%, units -5.6%, average retail sale +10.9% (Edge Retail Academy).
Gold hit nearly $5,600 an ounce in January 2026 and sat around $4,170 in mid-October. Holiday quotes, memo and assortment all move with it.
Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September, the lowest reading since 2014 according to the Wall Street Journal. Expect a selective holiday shopper, not an absent one.
Repairs, custom and redesign are where independents are growing: 90% of jewelers in Jewel360’s survey see more custom requests.

Higher prices carried the year. Fewer pieces left the case, but each one was worth more: average retail sale rose 10.9% and gross profit grew 5.5%, faster than sales. Repairs and services grew more than 14%. Precious metal jewelry without stones shows the squeeze most clearly: units down close to 17%, sales still up nearly 5%, average ticket up more than 20%.

Edge Retail Academy called 2026 a “sorting year.” My read: conversion, clienteling and inventory discipline will separate the stores that grow from the ones that do not. Nothing since January has argued with that.

What changed going into the holiday

Gold is lower than January, and still expensive

Spot gold hit nearly $5,600 an ounce in late January, then gave back well over $1,000. It traded around $4,170 in mid-October. Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 target to $4,900 in June. ING cut its fourth-quarter average forecast to $4,600. Nobody serious is calling the floor.

The World Gold Council reported that U.S. gold jewelry demand fell 25% year over year in the second quarter, with weakness concentrated in the mass market while higher-end jewelry held up better. Shoppers are favoring lighter-weight and lower-karat pieces.

The shopper is nervous

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 in September from a revised 88.6 in August, the lowest reading since 2014 according to the Wall Street Journal. The Expectations Index sat at 63.6, below 80 for the 20th month in a row. LPL Financial’s Jeffrey Roach called it “a warning sign for holiday spending.”

The chains came in with momentum

Signet reported same-store sales up 2.2% and average unit retail up about 6% in the quarter ended August 1, swung to a $52.1 million profit and raised its full-year guidance. Signet is entering the holiday confident, with financing, national media and a natural-diamond push behind Blue Nile.

What this means for an independent jeweler

Put those together and the holiday looks like this: fewer browsers, more deliberate buyers, higher tickets, and a gold price that makes the same piece cost more than it did two years ago. The stores that do well will not be the ones with the most traffic. They will be the ones that convert the traffic they get.

1. Price-engineer the gold case

Lighter 14k pieces, thoughtfully weighted chains and hollow or semi-hollow designs let you keep a $500 to $1,500 gift range without shrinking margin. Build that assortment now, while vendors can still ship it.

2. Quote gold live, not from a sticker

If a customer’s quote is based on a metal price from three weeks ago, either you are leaving margin behind or you are losing the sale. Live metal quoting on custom and bridal protects both.

3. Sell the redesign

This is the opening. In Jewel360’s 2026 survey of 117 independent jewelers, 90% said they are seeing more custom requests, and 65% said heirloom redesigns make up most of their custom work. 84% said gold prices are changing how people shop. A customer who flinches at a new heavy chain may happily pay to remake grandmother’s ring with gold she already owns. Online sellers cannot do that. A bench can.

4. Grow the repair and service line on purpose

Repairs and services grew more than 14% last year. Every repair is a customer standing at your counter in December. Train the floor to treat the pickup as a sales conversation, not a transaction.

5. Clientele before you advertise

In a selective season, your past buyers are the cheapest and most likely sale you have. A short list of personal invitations to customers who bought an engagement ring, an anniversary piece or a watch will outperform another broadcast email. I cover how in one text beats a thousand emails.

6. Watch color

Colored gemstones are trading up. In April, Edge Retail Academy data showed colored stone sales up 18% with units down 10% and average ticket up 31% to $1,737. Pearls were up 21%. Buyers who will not pay for heavier gold are paying for individuality.

What to measure this season

Track units, average ticket, close rate and repair dollars weekly, by store. Revenue alone will hide a falling unit count until January. If you cannot see those four numbers every Monday, fix that before Black Friday, not after.

Frequently asked questions

Are jewelry sales up or down right now?

Dollars are up and units are down. Edge Retail Academy data showed independent jewelers grew 2025 sales 4.7% while units fell 5.6%, as higher prices and average tickets offset fewer pieces sold.

How does the gold price affect holiday jewelry sales?

Gold hit nearly $5,600 an ounce in January 2026 and was around $4,170 in mid-October. Higher metal costs push shoppers toward lighter-weight and lower-karat pieces, raise quotes on custom work and make redesigns of gold customers already own more attractive.

What should independent jewelers focus on for the 2026 holiday?

Conversion over traffic: a price-engineered gold assortment, live metal quotes, heirloom redesign, repairs as a sales conversation, and personal outreach to past buyers before broadcast advertising.

Why is heirloom redesign growing?

When new gold is expensive, remaking pieces a customer already owns delivers something new for less. 90% of jewelers in Jewel360's 2026 survey reported more custom requests, and 65% said heirloom redesigns make up most of their custom work.

Sources

About the author

Nick Constantino is a Founding Partner of Red Beryl USA, CMO of Solomon Brothers Jewelers and fractional CMO for International Diamond Center. He spent nearly two decades in media sales at iHeartMedia, Live Nation and Dickey Broadcasting, where he was VP of Integrated Sales and Business Development. He co-hosts Legacy of Luxury with Jaron Solomon. Connect on LinkedIn.